It’s Time To Regroup

November 9, 2016

Don’t Panic
Every time I think things are predictable, the world continues to surprise me with its swerves. The motherf’n election.

This is not a time to panic, get angry, blame others, or lose our heads.
It’s time to regroup. It’s time to rebuild. It’s time to get stronger.

“Every adversity, every failure, every heartache carries with it the seed of an equal or greater benefit.”
― Napoleon Hill

Positive self talk

The country is strong enough to handle these types of changes. We still have tons of great men and women in this country.

All great stories have twists and turns. Lord of The Rings. Harry Potter. Star Wars. The Foundation. This is the dance between the light and the dark side. It’s the yin and the yang of things.

Everyone cares as much as we do. The country isn’t as fragile as it seems. There are still rules and regulations. There are checks and balances. And the whole world cares about our success too. We’re not alone in this. The only thing we can control is ourselves and our reactions. The best thing for us to do is to keep calm and do our work, best as we can. This will have a ripple effect on others.

Here are two videos that calmed my nerves.
Doreen Virtue
3 days before the election

Abraham Hicks
on being solid and strong regardless of outside circumstances, even elections

Professor’s Winning Prediction Model
Anyways, so as I was fuming last night, I wanted to see how this could’ve happened. I stumbled upon a great article by Professor of political history Allan Lichtman who predicted that the Republican candidate would win.

I read that article before the results came in and I thought he was completely off his rocker! This was a time when fivethirtyeight and other news organizations predicted 85% and above chance for Democratic candidate to win. Turns out he was right and everyone else was wrong.

Not only that, his model of predicting presidential elections has been back-tested since 1860 and forward tested since 1984. He co-created the model in 1981 and has written books on the topic, one of which I immediately started reading last nite.

The most curious thing was that his model doesn’t look at current candidates, attack ads, polls, or any of those things we all focus on. His model is to evaluate the current administration and how they’re doing. If people like the current president & his team, the country will vote for 4 more years of the same. If people are unsatisfied, they’ll vote for a change.

I think this type of a model is an important way for us to evaluate things moving forward (in politics, business, and life).

The 13 Keys To The White House
There are questions that focus on short term economics, long term economics, foreign policy, how the incumbent party fared during the mid term elections, third party candidates, and even the charisma of the current candidates.

Each question can be answered true or false. If there are 6 false keys out of 13, it means the other party’s candidate will win.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

This seems like an ingenious way to look at things and I wanted to share that with you. If we are going to regroup, get stronger, and make positive changes, we need all the best tools in our arsenal.

(PS: I’ve been taking tons of Bach’s Rescue Remedy these days, meant to reduce stress, maybe that is also calming my nerves!)

Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House – book amzn
Professor Allan Lichtman’s model predicts RNC victory on Sept 23
His model again predicts stronger RNC victory on Oct 28th
13 keys sourced from wikipedia